On Tuesday, Nepal Communist Party (Maoists) quit government vowing to begin an agitation and to disrupt the Constituent Assembly election. It came after five months of Maoists joining the government. The latest turn-around of the Maoists, whose 13-year-long People’s War put the country into unprecedented trouble, has ignited the fear of them returning to from where they come.
Most Nepali who lived peacefully without news of killings everyday fear that this could be the end of the opportunity to once again bring a peaceful nation. Many see it as a step that will increase trouble of the country rather than solving it.
Talks are going on to reach an agreement with the Maoists and hopefully, it will turn out fruitful. In the condition where Maoists has vowed to continue alliance with seven other political parties and keeping their army in the UN monitored camps and going through peaceful agitation, it is largely unlikely that they will go back to war again.
Then, what is it? What next?
For me, their latest step is nothing more than their nervous attempt to regain the faith of the people before going into the elections. Since they have joined the mainstream politics, the political scenario has changed a lot. The Tarai Uprising has been the main factor that has swept away their base in Tarai region.
Their early conclusion of Tarai Uprising, when they said its only a mob, has boomeranged. With Tarai people and many other smaller groups attempting to get deserved equality and rights, the situation for the Maoists in government was unfavorable. If these groups reach agreements with the government, Nepali Congress (a party with Prime Minister who lead and Ram Chandra Poudel, who is responsible to talks and agreement as peace and reconstruction minister) takes the credit and Maoists are left with nothing!
Better than that for the Maoists is to assist these groups in their fight (or possibly lead them) so to regain faith and popularity.
Secondly, Maoists had already expressed their fear in facing the people. Their war has caused 10,000 deaths and millions were irked and if they go to election without addressing the problems of the victims, they are unlikely to get people’s favor. It would be the stunning punch for them if they fail to go shoulder-to-shoulder with Nepali Congress and Communist Party of Nepal (United Marxist Lennists) which, many thinks, is unlikely in current situation.
So for them, fully proportional electoral system is the best choice rather than mixed one and if they succeed to make the interim parliament declare republic (their two demands for agreement is fully proportional electoral system and declaration of republic), it will be a big success for them to which they can take a credit and face people.
But if the election is now postponed and something happens in between, Nepali people won’t forgive the Maoists. And, in the condition when the political situation is not consolidated and many trying to play the game, postponement of the election will not be good for the country! So for me, the best option for the Maoists is face the election and before than build some image helping out agitating groups and in Tarai.
